Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.654850 20.455712 23.491295 27.017403 30.991943 35.324453 40.395471
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 13.488389 17.414231 22.065033 27.941132 35.123619 43.570984 54.207311
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 10.337153 14.692249 20.269339 27.840162 37.740804 50.128561 66.662711
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 8.711365 13.445718 19.921506 29.251315 42.140576 59.083972 82.757253
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 7.268983 12.104740 19.128050 29.799443 45.270459 66.495279 97.331728
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 6.057745 10.835490 18.172910 29.878015 47.601922 72.859425 110.836992
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.114487 9.786289 17.344371 29.953167 49.812593 79.092468 124.478084
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 4.746192 9.610025 17.826492 32.045730 55.167882 90.200495 145.832076
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.295937 9.201118 17.847811 33.355262 59.358950 99.795768 165.496185
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.897913 8.812142 17.833464 34.566156 63.440167 109.433911 185.750892
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.388234 8.111610 17.160216 34.540339 65.429036 115.854843 201.327774
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.846947 7.242140 16.047031 33.582850 65.705543 119.472090 212.590865
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.380449 6.454734 15.005758 32.682637 66.076720 123.398401 224.839989
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.093464 6.016414 14.602670 32.951588 68.569984 131.073296 243.779078
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.788588 5.469545 13.891576 32.525148 69.728113 136.508388 259.254992
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.670257 5.365223 14.118738 34.014853 74.608448 148.748759 287.023195
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.502012 5.091998 13.924476 34.590923 77.742874 158.018569 310.056586
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.323837 4.750204 13.519290 34.661676 79.866430 165.550628 330.381128
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.169373 4.439610 13.140411 34.739934 81.992648 173.184352 351.242344
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.146491 4.524385 13.751849 37.114238 89.013753 190.380382 390.271084
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.080765 4.459382 13.971534 38.599288 94.266096 204.465229 424.192713
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.014775 4.378702 14.138456 39.972177 99.367851 218.508451 458.642297
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.900136 4.103066 13.741386 39.942727 101.424806 226.702137 482.460277